Analysts are cautioning that escalating tension between Israel and Iran may have serious political and economic ramifications for Afghanistan.
Afghanistan imports more than 20 percent of its consumer goods from Iran, Ahmad Quraishi, an economic affairs analyst, said. In the qualifying year, bilateral trade surpassed $3.1 billion. “Our economy is deeply woven with Iran’s in energy, trade and goods,” he explained. “Heightened regional tensions—akin to the Ukraine war—will raise fuel costs, drive inflation, weaken Afghanistan’s currency and strain infrastructure and Afghan migrant communities.”
Security experts also point to broader regional instability. “This conflict will inflict a harsh blow on Iran and reshape political alignments across the region,” political analyst Nasrullah Stanekzai remarked. He warned that “new configurations could emerge in neighboring countries,” potentially destabilizing the Afghan government’s ability to maintain internal cohesion.
The geography underscores the risk. Afghanistan shares over 900 kilometers of border with Iran—linking Herat, Farah and Nimroz provinces to Iran’s Khorasan and Sistan-Baluchestan regions. Military disruption could close critical land routes and impair the flow of food, oil, medicine and electricity heavily reliant on cross-border exports.
The impact may extend to the millions of Afghan migrants in Iran. The Iranian Ministry of Interior reports that 6.1 million Afghan migrants—about 40 percent of whom have since returned home—remain in Iran. Given their economic dependence and irregular status, any expansion of conflict could endanger their safety and income, prompting further instability in Afghanistan.
With Afghanistan already confronting severe economic challenges following the withdrawal of international aid, the conflicts in the Middle East threatens to compound the strain—raising food prices, curtailing essential imports and setting off new waves of displacement.
